The markets are on hold, trying to see what will happen with government policy this week as the US Congress votes on $ 5,000 billion in new spending bills.
To put that in perspective, the total US GDP is around $ 23 trillion. So the United States is proposing to spend 20% of the annual productivity of the world’s largest economy this week. Is anyone already alarmed? It spends 20% of all American productivity (not tax revenues, all production of the American population) in a week!
By the way, there is more news in agriculture this week – the weather still matters too. The weather forecast is wetter today, with above normal precipitation forecast next week in the southern half of the United States, and above normal in the Corn Belt during days 8-14. This is a big change from the previously forecast hot / dry weather. The weather forecast is still above normal, but wetter which is a more bullish forecast than before. Thus, the weather becomes more bullish, as it will create difficulties with the harvest. But for the most part, the crops are drying much faster than normal and the harvest is well ahead of normal at this point.
Everyone, please have a safe and successful harvest as the harvest heats up in the Midwest this week. We harvested 18% corn as of 09/26 (3% ahead of normal) and 16% harvested soybeans (also 3% ahead). Harvest conditions are stable this week with 58% G / E soybeans and 59% G / E corn.
The Pro Ag yield model for corn is 177 bushels / acre (vs. 176.3 USDA) and 49.1 bushels for soybeans (vs. 50.6 USDA). It appears soybean yields may need to be reduced, while USDA corn yield estimates may be on target. Now we will see that the lie detectors (the combines) are in the fields – the crop is what is in the combine’s hopper! Now it’s just a matter of figuring out what it is.
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Saturday morning webinar
Watch our Saturday webinar at 7:00 a.m. on www.progressiveag.com/videos . This week’s 10 minute topic is “Inflation”.
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Ray is President of Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc., one of the nation’s top marketing companies. See http://www.progressiveag.com for rankings and links to data from Top Producer Magazine and Agweb.com.
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